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Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) has seen a flurry of PUT OPTIONS activity today. It has traded about 123,000 puts and 17,589 calls as of 11:20am, with put volume nearly 3X average daily volume already. Of this volume more than 75% of it has been bought at the offer, bearish bets. The majority of the volume is due to large ratio put spreads in January, as the $26/$21 ratio put spread is being bought, 31,000 $26 puts against 62,000 $21 puts. The action comes a day after large bearish bets were being made in June for the Financials (XLF), of which Wells Fargo is a large component. The main worry with Wells Fargo is that it will need to raise capital in the near future as it is attempting to rely on earnings to repay the TARP. The Company will be presenting this Friday in Boston at 10am at the Bank Analysts Association. The ratio put spread is also a bet against volatility, although Wells has traded in a very tight range for months and is already less volat ile than its counterparts.
-JOE KUNKLE, OptionsHawk.com
We have already covered the news that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is acquiring Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE: BNI). But this news has many of the other railroad stocks popping early on the news. At 8:12 AM EST we have CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) up 8% at $46.30 on over 200,000 shares. Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is up almost 7% at $49.85 on about 68,000 shares. Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) is up 11% at $26.75,but on little volume. Buffett also owns a stake of Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), which is up over 6% at $58.71. We’d expect that Buffett will sell that Union Pacific stake and you can likely forget about Buffett buying another rail player because of antitrust issues that could come into play. This acquisition does et the valuation bar higher for the sector, but it would tale other players to buy these besides Buffett. -JON OGG
There was elevated options activity in the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) June put action is picking up as financials sell off and 253,000 puts trade against 81,000 calls in the ETF. Large trades include a 20,000 contract June $11/$10 put spread and a buyer of 20,000 June $14 puts. March $14/$11 ratio put spreads are also active on the day. Near days end 407,000 puts have traded including a 3:35 pm June $14/$10 ratio put spread for 38,500X77,000 contracts looking for volatility to decrease and shares to head lower in the next 8 months. Large components include BAC, JPM, and WFC.
Joe Kunkle, OptionsHawk.com
Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) shares are weak in a strong tape, down 5.4%, due to a downgrade to Sell at Citigroup. Implied volatility is up 10% on the day and option traders are active with 93,000 calls and 59,886 puts trading just two hours into trading. The volume has already surpassed the average daily volume and is mixed between buyers and sellers in both the calls and puts. One notable bullish trade was a new opening buyer at the $0.24 offer for 15,000 March $100 calls that are way out of the money, a lotto ticket type bet. Most of the other action is retail traders with some looking for a continued move lower and others buying on the dips looking for shares to be defended. Shares are now trading at a PEG of 0.8X and are historically cheap on an earnings basis for the Blackberry maker.
Joe Kunkle, OptionsHawk.com
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is trading higher on word from the company that it has filed its new drug application with the FDA for PROVENGE to treat prostate cancer. The notion of the filing is not new, although many were not expecting this filing to be submitted until later in November or in December. At 8:44 AM EST we have seen 250,000 shares trade hands and the last print seen was up 6.8% at $27.00 after a $25.27 close on Friday. Average volume is almost 3 million shares, but it is usually much higher trading volume on days with news.
JON C. OGG
RADVISION Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) is already trading higher this morning. The company’s earnings yesterday morning were $0.13 non-GAAP EPS and $20.4 million in revenues versus Thomson Reuters figures. And the guidance for Q4 was listed as $0.17 non-GAAP EPS and $21.5 million in revenues. That guidance may be mixed, but it does not signal an imminent drop off. We have also seen upgrades from Morgan Keegan and from Oscar Gruss. But this morning’s boost comes on the heels of reports from overseas that Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) may walk away from the $3.1 billion acquisition of Tandberg.
If you will recall, Tel Aviv, Israel-based RADVISION shares fell from over $9.00 down to about $6.00 at the end of September when this Tandberg deal was announced by Cisco. Cisco is RADVision’s largest customer, and if Cisco is not going to buying a larger company like Tandberg it may either look elsewhere or it may just keep its pacts with RADVision. That may not offer key certainty by any stretch with “may” and with the hypothetical situations, but it leaves the upside for RADVision higher than it did. It is also after the company’s earnings and its guidance.
Where this gets interesting is in the NOV and DEC $7.50 CALLS for a de-leveraged trade. In December, we have seen only 10 contracts trade hands in the DEC-2009 $7.50 CALLS versus a prior open interest of 1,150 contracts. And in November, we have seen only 30 contracts trade in the NOV-2009 $7.50 CALLS versus a prior open interest of 68 contracts. The last price traded on the NOV CALLS was $0.25 and the last on the DEC CALLS was $0.15 and under the current market of $0.25 bid X $0.40 ask per contract.
Either way, with a 5.5% gain to $6.34 today traders are looking at the stock. Volume is already twice-normal at over 420,000 shares as of 10:46 AM EST. That is already above yesterday’s 358,000 shares traded and well above the 100,000 or so seen on many days. Some might also look at an ‘implied floor’ of about $5.60 seen from after the Cisco-Tandberg deal announcement right before earnings this week.
Reports do not constitute any definite outcomes. But that won’t keep traders from speculating either way.
JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 30, 2009
CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) Is getting “pantsed” this morning on the NYSE. Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) has trimmed the size of its loan. Rather than $3 billion, Goldman is loaning some $2.13 billion. This is two days after CIT raised $4.5 billion and as it continues on its restructuring efforts. At 8:56 AM EST we have shares trading down 7.3% at $0.88 on almost 1.4 million shares. Of course the volume is extremely high at 87 million shares on average per day, but this gets the stock within striking distance of yesterday’s $0.85 low and with the $0.82 low on OCT 13. We saw those same levels in early-August. JON OGG
Included is the after-hours moves and pertinent data with a snapshot as of 5:14 PM EST. Estimates are Thomson Reuters data where noted:
Conexant Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNXT) closed at $2.44 and shares are trading at $2.88 up 18.03% on 67,400 shares since the closing bell. This one posted 0.11 EPS vs. $0.09 estimates; imaging and audio businesses grew 18% on a sequential basis and accounted for 58% of total revenues and is raising guidance.
Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) closed at $10.18 and shares are trading at $11.68 up 14.73% on 2,297,577 shares since the closing bell. This already had a monster up-day of 17% before the close, so anyone who bought yesterday cleaned house. The company posted $0.24 EPS vs a -$0.02 estimate. Revenues rose 10% to $2.39 billion, but under the $2.52B estimate. Book value per share grew 10% sequentially to $25.42 per share over the improvement in the markets.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) closed at $14.76 and is now trading up at $15.99 up 8.33% on 4,810,097 shares since the closing bell. That is on top of a 12% gain today and because the company beat earnings on cost cuts and announced that it has record pre-booked rooms and has more group rooms already booked for 2010 than it expects for all of 2009.
Novatel Wireless, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVTL) closed at $12.19 and shares are trading at $10.13 down by 16.90% on 661,773 shares since the closing bell. The company did beat earnings, but issues are there on guidance. Earnings were $0.20 EPS vs $0.10 EPS estimates; Revenues were up 12.1% to $94.3 million vs. $92.6 million expected. For Q4 the company sees $0.04 to $0.12 EPS and revenues of $85 to $95 million versus estimates of $0.10 EPS and $95.69 mln consensus.
Tessera Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRA) closed at $26.86 and shares are trading at $22.55 down by 16.05% on 62,124 shares since the closing bell. Earnings were $0.24 EPS and revenues were up 4% at $66.1 million vs. $0.21 and $65.7 million estimates. But its Q4 revenue guidance is weak at a range of $60 to $62 million vs $69.9 million expected.
JON C. OGG
Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) has been soaring today. At 2:45 PM EST we saw this one already cross a full day’s trading volume at 120% normal stock trading volume and that options were picking up throughout the day. This follows the JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight from Neutral ahead of new additional clinical data next week. Our friend over at OptionsHawk.com just sent us more details on the options trading:
Human Genome (HGSI) is trading 84,000 calls and 21,000 puts on the day after an upgrade at JP Morgan before the key November 2nd Benlysta seocnd of two Phase 3 trial data for the treatment of Lupus, which would make it the leading contender in the market for a highly lucrative potential market. Smart money has been bullish the name in recent weeks with 10,000 contract November $25/$30 call spreads and various other strategies as the common consensus is a 70% chance of the drug having a positive outcome. Despite implied volatility being at 193%, many are still betting on volatility expecting a sharper than priced in reaction. Today’s action represents 4X the average call volume, although only 1/4th of the action is offer side buying, but ISE Sentiment indicates 3 calls are being opened for every 1 put. One of the larger trades today is slightly bullish but bearish on volatility as the trader used a butterfly call spread, buying 3,500 of the November $20 and $3 0 calls, and selling 7,000 of the $25 calls, expecting shares to trade around the $25 level and for Implied Volatility to be crushed. -OPTIONSHAWK.COM
-JON C. OGG