VIVUS Options Signaling Huge Move (VVUS)

VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQL VVUS) shares closed up strong on the week with a 21% gain despite a somewhat soft move Friday.  An analyst call from Wedbush and a downgrade the following day ahead of the FDA review next week.  The difference is that Wedbush believes the stock is a potential double.  The biggest action is actually not even in the stock.  The stock options activity speaks wonders.  See below, with the call and put strike prices, the price, and the contracts traded versus the open interest:

CALL$        Contracts    O.I.
10.00 at $3.90   925    16,989
11.00 at $3.40     1,071    8,851
12.00 at $2.70     4,884    10,380
13.00 at $2.20   2,577    14,644
14.00 at $1.80   1,946    5,394
15.00 at $1.35     3,884    15,931
16.00 at $1.00     2,333    7,662
17.50 at $0.70   3,189    12,737
20.00 at $0.30     7,060    13,181
PUTS$       Contracts    O.I.
5.00 at $0.35     3,813    22,222
6.00 at $0.65    13,759    3,509
7.00 at $1.10     6,738    22,675
8.00 at $1.50      2,882    6,619
9.00 at $1.90     5,388    15,316
10.00 at $2.45     2,389    10,105
11.00 at $2.90     599    3,166
12.00 at $3.30     1,478    869

Making a synthetic speculative straddle with the $12 CALLS and the $11 PUTS for July shows just how expensive it is and how much of a move there could be depending upon the FDA panel review.

That synthetic speculative straddle would cost $5.60, meaning the stock would have to go under $5.40 or above $17.60… In short, the stock is apt to see a hell of a move this week.

JON C. OGG

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Allos Sees Options Alert (ATH)

Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTH) saw a rather unusual options trade today, and the move has not been mirrored nor echoed at all by the raw trading of the common stock.

Joe Kunkle of OptionsHawk.com just noted to us:

• “Alert with a buyer of 2,000 August $7.50/$5 put spreads for $1.85, a few days after the long term uptrend going back to 2006 was broken.  The Company received EU Orphan Status for its experimental cancer drug for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma back in June, but is in early stage trials.  The FDA also gave it orphan drug status for its bladder cancer drug in May.  Put volume is 12X average on the bear spread.  With many of its trials in early stages shares are falling out of favor with impatient investors despite the promising results, it could be susceptible to a capital raising at this pace.”

What is interesting is that 2,000 contracts is a bet of 200,000 shares if you count it on a fully leveraged basis.  We have so far only seen 303,000 shares trade hands by 1:23 PM EST today and the average volume is over 1.1 million shares.

When you see moves like this, it is generally a lone trade.  Whether or not it gets followed depends upon many factors.

Allos shares are actually up 1.8% at $5.65 on the day, and the 52-week range is $4.97 to $8.79.

JON C. OGG

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LeBron James Trade: Options Alert in Madison Square Garden (MSG)

Will basketball great LeBron James stay in Cleveland, or will he go packing for more money?  Personally, I could care less.  If you can imagine that a basketball player might be influencing a stock out there, imagine away.  Madison Square Garden, Inc. (NYSE: MSG) is fairly new as a stock because of the spin-off.  Its MSG Sports consists of the NBA’s New York Knicks, the NHL’s New York Rangers, the WNBA’s New York Liberty, and the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack.  The Knicks… one of LeBron’s potential or speculated destinations now that he is free to look elsewhere beyond Cleveland.

Options speculators are out in MSG today:

• JULY-2010 $22.50 CALLS have seen 6,500 contracts trade, versus an open interest of only 1,931 contracts.  There is elevated PUT volume as well as the JULY-2010 $20.00 PUTS have traded 3,113 contracts versus a mere open interest of 248 contracts.

UPDATE at 3:50 PM EST: JULY $20.00 CALLS have traded 1,895 contracts versus 831 open interest; JULY $22.50 CALLS have traded 8,989 contracts; JULY $20 PUTS have traded 3,937 contracts.

It seems that if there is a way to speculate, options traders always have their hands in it.

Madison Square Garden shares has also seen about twice-normal trading volume today against its 311,000 shares on average: shares are up 1.5% at $20.58 on over 600,000 shares with just over an hour until the closing bell.

Joe Kunkle of OptionsHawk.com said: “There is  bullish bias with the front month volatility skew betting on Lebron to the Knicks, but the largest trade bought 2000 July 22.5/20 strangles, just betting on a volatile reaction in shares to the news.  Multiple celebrities on Twitter, including Ocho Cinco are hinting at Lebron to the Knicks.”

Sometimes you hear the stock market being referred to as the same as gambling.  This is one of those examples.

JON C. OGG

Frontier Volume Shocks (FTR)

Frontier Communications Corporation (NYSE: FTR) is still on the most actives list for Volume Spike investors.  We have a 200% volume alert for a full trading day, yet there are not even two hours of trading since the market opened at 9:30 AM EST.  This looks huge but is actually lower than the last two days.  The problem is that today’s volume is light when you consider how much traded last week on what was otherwise a rather quiet trading period:

• JULY 2… 49,167,100 shares; $7.35 close.
• JULY 1… 30,407,200 shares; $7.69 close.
• JUNE 30… 12,362,300 shares; $7.11 close.

At 11:24 AM EST, FTR is down 2.45% at $7.17 on 17.7 million shares.  The 52-week range is $6.43 to $8.57 and the average trading volume is almost 6.4 million shares.

Just last week, the company closed on its $5.3 billion acquisition of phone lines in 14 states belonging to Verizon.

JON C. OGG

Short Interest Volume Spikes

We updated the major short interest changes on some of the most active cult stocks that are from listed penny stocks and low priced stocks based on June 15 settlement date changes from May 28.  Stock tickers are as follows:

• ALU, ABK, BBI, BGP, BRCD, C, DRYS, FRE, FNM, NOK, PALM, PMI, BPOP, RAD, SIRI, S, UNG, VG

Read full report at 24/7 Wall Street

BP Options Bets… Going to $10?

BP plc (NYSE: BP) is under fire, as if that is not the understatement of the decade.  While shares fell over 16% and were headed to close close to $29.00 today there was a hell of an options trading pattern in the PUT options.  BP had explosive options trading down all the way in the PUT contracts under $20 and even down to $10 and lower…. This is the data shortly before the closing bell just on the JUNE-2010 CALLS alone:

If you look, that is a first for options trading.  The prior open interest was listed as a whopping 5 contracts spread out among the $7.50 to $15.00 PUT strikes before today.  Many of these are sure to be just extremely low probability high-risk vs. high-reward scenarios.  Still, it will make you wonder….

JON C. OGG

Volume Spike on Patent Troll Alert: Rambus/Micron (RMBS, MU)

Rambus Inc. (NASDAQ:RMBS) has been weak for part of the trading day, although some of this data was assumed to be known after a prior delay.

The company has confirmed that it has received notification from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ordering the rehearing of arguments to take place on October 7, 2010, following an initial hearing held in April 2010 in the cases with Hynix Semiconductor and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU).

All Rambus’ general counsel noted was as follows: “In spite of this delay, we remain confident in our position. We will vigorously argue our right to defend and be fairly compensated for use of our patented innovations borne of years of work by Rambus scientists and engineers.”

Rambus At 1:30 PM EST we have Rambus shares down 13% at $19.05 on 9.6 million shares, versus an average volume of less than 2 million shares and versus a trading range today of $18.93 â€" $22.75.  Micron is up 3.15% at $8.81 on 16.7 million shares, which is actually fairly low trading volume for when it has big news.

JON C. OGG

TiVo Losing More Edge (TIVO, DISH, SATS)

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is down after it is having to explain another patent office ruling…. It appears as though that decision that went against TiVo in favor of DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) and EchoStar Corporation (NASDAQ: SATS) is holding.

TiVo shares in the minute before the closing bell are trading down 5.5% at $7.70 on over 10 million shares right at the 4PM Closing Bell, which is mostly from the headline effect of the last five or six minutes.  DISH shares closed up unofficially by 0.25% at $19.97 and SATS shares closed up unofficially by 1.1% at $20.50.  It seems that almost all hope for TiVo had eswcaped based on its poor performance and shares hitting a new 52-week low today.

TiVo offered the following statement on the United States Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) decision.

“While TiVo is disappointed with this recent PTO office action, this is just one of several steps in the review process. We will continue to work with the PTO to explain the validity of the claims under review. It is important to note that TiVo received a “final action” holding several claims invalid during EchoStar’s first reexamination request at this juncture only to have the PTO ultimately uphold the validity of all claims of the patent.

Moreover, the PTO proceeding is separate and apart from the ongoing litigation against EchoStar and does not impact the current United States Court of Appeals en banc review of the district court’s finding of contempt against EchoStar and the related injunction.”

DISH Network L.L.C., a subsidiary of DISH Network Corporation (Nasdaq:DISH â€" News), and EchoStar Technologies L.L.C., a subsidiary of EchoStar Corporation (Nasdaq: SATS) made the following statements:

“We are pleased the Patent and Trademark Office issued a Final Office Action maintaining its rejection of the software claims of TiVo’s patent. These software claims are the same claims that EchoStar was found to have infringed in the contempt ruling now pending for en banc review by the Federal Circuit. In the Final Office Action, three examiners of the PTO considered TiVo’s response and, in a detailed 32-page decision, finally concluded that the software claims were unpatentable in view of two prior art references.”

JON C. OGG

Tellabs Volume Spike: Research to Rumor (TLAB, T)

Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) is getting hit today due to a research call out of Barclays.  The call is having enough impact that it became acting just like a stock rumor…. Barclays cut its price target down to $7.00 from $9.50, and shares are adjusting for the drop immediately as Barclays noted that AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) may be dropping much of its vendor business with Tellabs in a vendor consolidation move that could cost TLAB 5% to 10% of its revenues.  At 2:00 PM EST we have shares down over 11% at $6.97 on more than 27 million shares.

Believe it or not, this is already nearly triple an average day’s volume of almost 9.5 million shares.  The 52-week range is $4.96 to $9.45.

JON C. OGG

Apple Options Leading Shares in Upside Exposure (AAPL)

Traders are back to using stock options in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for getting exposure to the price moves rather than the stock it seems.  We ran a snapshot of the options trading versus the stock trading today at 2:00 PM and the data is pretty obvious that there seems to be speculators in the name around the news of better than expected iPad sales.   Much of the gains may also be on follow-on bullish trading from the $310 to $400 analyst call last week.

Using options for high-priced shares is no new event.  But it is always interesting when you see the fully leveraged amount of options when converted into a share equivalent.  This is even more interesting when you consider that options buyers are out speculating in contracts with a strike price of $300 and higher in the CALLS.

For the June-2010 Calls around 2:00 PM EST, Apple’s more active contracts in the $230 to $310 strikes in the CALL options was more than 95,000 contracts.  The PUTS for June had over 47,000 contracts traded.  On a fully leveraged basis, that is over 9.5 million shares equivalent in the Calls and 4.7 million shares in the Puts.  Considering taht Apple was right at 20 million shares at 2:00 that is very active options trading.

Go out to July-2010 expirations and the most active calls was nearly 40,000 contracts traded, almost another 4 million shares equivalent on a fully leveraged basis.  And in July, the active  Call options went all the way out to $310 and $320 strike prices.  That is obvious that traders and speculators are using leverage for upside exposure in the name at $1.00 to $2.00 per contract rather than paying over $260 per share.

Shares are now up 2.6% at $263.55 on the day.

JON C. OGG

Jonesing At Wal-Mart (JSDA, WMT)

Jones Soda Co. (NASDAQ: JSDA) is soaring this morning on its announcement that Wal-Mart is now authorized to retail its products in the company’s 3,800 domestic stores.  What is interesting is that the shares are moving far more than the net addition, because the announcement says, “The deal increases Jones’ total retail outlet distribution by nearly 10%, and will make the product easily accessible to millions of new consumers.”

Jones has been given three shelf facings for a custom assorted 6-pack of Jones Pure Cane Soda, which includes two bottles each of some of Jones’ most popular flavors â€" Green Apple, Berry Lemonade and Cream Soda.  A wal-Mart and Jones variety pack in other words.

Jones shares are up over 45% around the $1.00 mark today and we have already seen 2.3 million shares trade.  The 52-week range is $0.40 to $1.42 and average daily volume is only about 500,000 shares.  Keep in mind that at one time during the specialty beverage boom that Jones was a double digit stock that went above $10 in 2006… Then it went to $20, and then above $30…

UPDATE 1:20 PM EST: Jones shares are now up 50% at $1.05 but the stock has traded as high as $1.25.  We have seen 4.8 million shares, so we are closing in on a 10X volume day already.

JON C. OGG

Next Week’s TiVo Trade Set-Ups (TIVO, DISH, SATS)

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) was the daily implosion on Friday.  As noted for stocks to watch next week in our UNUSUAL SUSPECTS at 24/7 Wall Street, the stock was given a death-blow after Dish succeeded in getting the TiVo patent case involving Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH) and EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS) heard on appeal.  What we wanted to do for the week ahead after the huge volume spike was to come up with a trader take for support and resistance levels based on the current prices and based upon the old prices from before TiVo rallied so much.

Shares went from roughly $18.00 down over 41% to close at $10.16 Friday on more than 57 million shares.  This takes TIVO stock almost right where it was before its huge pop-up on winning the patent case in the first place.

As you can see on the chart here from StockCharts.com, you can forget about the key 50-day and 200-day moving averages offering much of anything.  If there is any takeaway in the moving averages, it is only that the 200-day at $11.97 (which will change each day) matters for resistance.  The 50-day average did not even have 50 sessions at the higher prices, explaining why the line goes straight up.

If you go back a year, it is $11.00 that had been the big pivot point and the hard line of resistance back before it won the patent case the first time around.  Above that was a resistance of $12.00, which coincides with the 200-day average right now.  That 200-day average will likely come down over a nickel a day this week and will then start to bleed off closer to 3 cents a day for another week or so.

As far as support, $10.00 had been a longer-term pivot level for support before its significant pop-up earlier this year.  Then there is a lower level of $8.60 to $9.05, which would be a harder support level than $10.00.  So, on downdrafts, S1- $10.00; S2 $9.05; S3- $8.65…

As far as RSI, stochastics, and MACD ar e concerned, you can probably throw those out the window for at least the next two weeks while this stock finds its own trading range.

As far as stock options, we almost always like to see just what the real volatility traders are pricing in for straddles.  It is almost always too expensive to buy both the PUT and CALL at the closest strike price, but we are looking at the $10 straddle for both MAY. The MAY $10 strike was $0.75 for the CALL and appears to be $0.57 for the PUTS.  With $0.16 of intrinsic value, TiVo stock still would have to rise above $11.32 or go down under $8.68 in the next week for the volatility to trade in MAY to make money.

As far as analyst calls yesterday, Lazard did cut the stock to HOLD from BUY.

An appeals court did set aside TiOo’s previous win against Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH) and EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS) in the patent case for digital video recorders.  It looks as though the federal circuit court for the U.S. Court of Appeals will review its own March decision.  Dish and EchoStar had changed the DVR technology to avoid infringing on the patents, but the court had ruled that the devices still used TiVo’s technology.  $300 million or more in past damage awards hangs in the balance.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Asiainfo… Dis-Info? (ASIA)

Asiainfo Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ASIA) started out ok today, but then things got worse.  And worse.  On no real news dissemination this stock is down 8.2% at $22.18 today and the intra-day trading range is $21.90 to $24.38.  The 52-week range is $15.30 to $32.60.

At 3:00 PM EST we have now crossed the 2 million shares mark, making this double normal volume and then some versus 836K on average for a full day.  This is one of those stocks that rarely if ever makes for a volume spike alert.

Sybase Takeover Chatter (SY, SAP)

Sybase, Inc. (NYSE: SY) saw a major volume explosion and massive price move late in the trading day.  Bloomberg reported that SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) may acquire the company.  Maybe yes, maybe no.  Shares at 3:21 PM EST are up a whopping 51% at $63.00 on well over 6 million shares.  Keep in mind that no formal deal has been announced and this would be a very recent development if the company is bought. Stay tuned.

JON C. OGG

Three Frequent Asked Questions about Sedation Dentistry

=================================================

Once you've experienced sedation dentistry with Dr. Larry Lu at BigSmiles Dental Care located in Surrey, Canada, you'll never be afraid to go to the dental office again.

You'll be sedated just enough to be unaware of the treatment, as if you were relaxing. You'll wake up refreshed, with little or no memory of what was accomplished.

Here are the three most asked questions and their answers:

Q1: Am I a Good Candidate?

A:


You or someone you love love are a candidate for sedation dentistry if you have experienced any of the following?

* High Fear or Anxiety.
* Have had traumatic dental experiences.
* Have very sensitive teeth.
* A gag reflex.
* Extensive dental problems.
* A tight schedule.
* Difficulty in becoming numb.


Q2: What Medication Do You Use in the Office?

A:


You will be given some oral medication (Triazolam or Lorazepam) to take about an hour before you come to the office for your treatment. When you arrive in our relaxed dental office, you will already be feeling drowsy so you must be accompanied by a companion. Upon arrival, you will be escorted to the relaxation room. We will cover you up with a cozy warm blanket and monitor your vital signs at all times, more medication will be given depending on procedures and length of your appointment. When you are totally relaxed and comfortable, we will take care of your dental needs. When we have completed your dental treatment, we will have your companion take you home to enjoy the rest of your relaxing day.



Q3: Does It Really Work?



A:



Most patients report that they feel absolutely nothing and that during their appointments they are relaxed, sleeping and comfortable at all times.


You will not be unconscious. You will be in a deep and relaxed state but will be responsive.

You will be sedated, so you will require a companion to drive you to your appointment and home again after.



One of our team members will be with you or monitoring you at ALL times during your visit with us. We will monitor your vital signs to ensure your safety.



You will literally sleep through your appointment with little or no memory of your visit here. This means that you will have no memory of your experience here including the sounds and smells of the dental office. Those individuals who have difficulty getting numb experience great success when they are asleep.



It is extremely safe. There are no intra-venous tubes or needles and we do not use a general anaesthetic. You take one small pill before your appointment and will be totally relaxed. Difficult and involved dental treatments that would often require several appointments can be completed in one while you are asleep.



Surrey dentist, Dr. Larry Lu, DDS can fix your teeth, restore sore gums, and brighten your smile without discomfort. With sedation dentistry, you'll be able to relax through your appointments.



You can have years of dental treatment done in just a few appointments. No more hiding your smile behind your hand or putting up with pain.




Dr. Larry Lu

Biggest Gainers During the Crash (CKP, CAAS, CLWR, RDEN, HTRN, HNT, KERX, MED, PACR, PPO, TIE, ABCO)

Despite a crash on Thursday, these are some of Thursday’s biggest gainers on the day that are not inverse ETF, not gold, not funds, and not preferred or bond shares.  As of 9:20 AM EST:

Checkpoint Systems Inc. (NYSE: CKP) +10.6% to $20.68

China Automotive Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) +5% to $20.29; indicated up 1% this morning.

Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) +5.7% to $7.99; indicated up 0.75% at $8.05.

Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN) +5.7%; flat on no volume.

Healthtronics Inc. (NASDAQ: HTRN) +32%; flat on low volume.

Health Net Inc. (NYSE: HNT) +5.8%; DOWN 2.5% at $22.81 early this morning

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: KERX) +6.8%; shares down 0.7% at $5.91 on low volume.

Medifast Inc. (NYSE: MED) +7.8%; up almost 1% at $32.87.

Pacer International (NASDAQ: PACR) +10%; flat on low volume.

Polypore International (NYSE: PPO) +15%; up 0.7% at $19.54.

Titanium Metals Corp. (NYSE: TIE) +12%… no ind.

The Advisory Board (NASDAQ: ABCO) +11%; indicated up 2% but on no trading.

JON C. OGG

Myriad Comes Up Way Short (MYGN)

Myriad Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN) is getting clipped rather hard this morning despite profits rising about 30%.

Earnings were $0.33 EPS and revenue was up 5% at $90.8 million; Thomson Reuters had estimates at $0.39 EPS on revenue of $97.8 million.  2010 Guidance was $1.30 to $1.35 EPS on revenue of $360 million to $365 million; Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.50 EPS on revenues of $381.5 million.

The company noted, “…macroeconomic conditions continued to impact the frequency of physician visits, which remain well below historic levels…”

Shares were down about 23% on last look in the after-hours session, while the stock at 8:28 AM EST this morning is trading down by 24% at $18.32 on only about 140,000 shares.

Go ahead and mark this as a 52-week low… The prior 52-week range was $20.62 to $38.43.

JON C. OGG

InterMune Implosion (ITMN)

InterMune Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) just imploded after-hours.  The stock has traded now over 14 million shares listed as of 5:31 PM EST and the 5.4% drop to $45.44 during the regular session looks like kids play.

• FULL NEWS AT BIOHEALTHINVESTOR.COM

Now shares are down 78% at $9.58 and we saw prints down even around $9.00.  That is close to $2 billion in market cap destroyed in the after-hours session. Mark that as a new 52-week low as the prior range was $10.48 to $49.46.

Ugly, and fugly for that matter, just took on a new name.  That name is InterMune.

JON C. OGG

Popular Gap Reversal (BPOP)

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) was trading up again and continued up after the gains on Friday evening, but the stock exhibited a true gap & crap pattern after the open.  As covered in The Unusual Suspects this weekend… It has already been a winner with shares up big in the last 3 months.  Shares rose by 8.6% to $4.29 in the after-hours session on more than 900,000 shares Friday on the news: Westernbank Puerto Rico was seized by the FDIC on Friday with about $11.9 billion in assets; Banco Popular agreed to acquire Westernbank’s deposits and about $9.4 billion of its assets, with the FDIC keeping the rest for future sale.

Shares opened at $4.10 after a $3.95 close… At 9:37 AM EST we now have shares DOWN 3.3% at $3.83 on almost 9 million shares.

Shares closed at $3.95 Friday and were up 5% at $4.15 on just over 1 million shares right before the open.  The old 52-week high is $4.23, so this could mark a 52-week high if any added strength returns.

JON C. OGG

Biosante Back on Prostate Cancer Path (BPAX)

Biosante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX) is up after announcing that development of its GVAX Prostate Cancer Vaccine has been reinitiated. The company said that manufacturing of the new GVAX Prostate is in process and that regulatory steps to lift the GVAX Prostate clinical hold prior to trial initiation are being taken.  Further noted was that prostate cancer patients are expected to be treated in a Phase II human clinical trial beginning in the fourth quarter of 2010 at Johns Hopkins.

The stock closed at $2.35 on Friday and at 8:44 AM EST we have shares up over 7% at $2.52 on about 73,000 shares.

JON OGG